Tuesday, 30 October 2012

The burst of the Yield Bubble?

CDL HT reported a worst than expected results and dragged down the some of the REITs such as the Far East Hospitality REIT and the Ascott REIT. Not sure if this will be the "burst" of the yield bubble?


STXOSV


If this has been my trading position, I would have cut loss at 1.55. On hindsight, i have been to eager to buy shares for my SRS portfolio and has not bought a a good support level :( As mentioned earlier, this is a volatile stock and it has proven to be soon in recent days.

M1


Again, i have not been very "prudent" in that i have not waited till the price fall to a nice support level before buying :( A strong support will be between 245-255 area.

Starhub


Urrggh... such strong stock!! :( why did i even let it go!?.........

Friday, 26 October 2012

SRS Portfolio Weekly Review

This is a short week with 4 trading days. I am lazy and will not do a full scale update. Still trying to figure out why i sold Starhub and bought M1. urggh...hahaha :) Happy Holidays.

Cache Logistics

Announced its Q3 results this week.

The Q3 presentation slides is here.


The Trust will distribute 100% of the taxable income till 31 Dec 2012 but drop to 90% thereafter. The trust will distribute 2.144 cents per unit for this quarter and the payment will be made on 29 Nov 2012. 

The Starfish SRS portfolio will receive about $107.20 on that day. The yield is still pretty decent at current price.

Perennial China Retail Trust

PCRT will announce its results before market opens on 6 Nov.

QAF

QAF will announce its results after market close on 12 Nov.

Suntec REIT

The Q3 presentation slides is here.


The Q3 distribution per unit is 2.35c. Starfish SRS portfolio will get about $117.50 on 29 Nov 2012. The 3Q 12 results is not 'nice' and showed a 19.5% decline but this is likely due to its asset enhancement exercise. Let's see how the market will view this set of results on Monday.

Saturday, 20 October 2012

SRS Portfolio Weekly Review

Cache Logistics


A long tail appeared and 1.27 will be a resistance to overcome. No major news released this week but watch out for the yield bubble burst.

Far East Hospitality Trust


Showing signs of weakness as mentioned in my previous weekly review. One interesting news emerged yesterday that APG Pension has become a 5% substantial shareholder. The announcement is here. APG is the Dutch fund manager managing its pension fund. It is indeed good to see some real long term investors buying into FEHT. I would rate this as positive news.

M1


This is my new addition this week. The post is here. Frankly, i am not sure if this is a 'wise move' to switch from Starhub to M1, but we shall see. The company announced its Q3 results and the presentation slides is here. One thing I miss may be the quarterly distribution of Starhub of 5c each. Perhaps i should add M1 to Starhub instead of replacing M1 with Starhub. hahaha. Let see if i can buy Starhub back in future and maybe i will "hello Starhub" again. Not sure what i was thinking this week but perhaps i was 'misled' by the analysts?


It's a weak set of Q3 results and earnings decline 14.3% on a 9 month basis although M1 said Q4 likely to be better. Starhub will release its Q3 results on 2 Nov although it may still have that EPL capital expenditure hanging over its head. I definitely prefer Starhub's business model of "hubbing" broadband, TV and mobile. I think eventually M1 may be acquired by Starhub or Singtel or some foreign player as it is the smallest player here.

Nera Tel


Nice chart and a nice set of results. This is one company which i will consider adding on if there is any correction. I have a recent post this week on Nera Tel after its Q3 results.

Perennial China Retail Trust


Really require a lot of patience and it is not helping when i see Capita Retail China flying up like a rocket as you know that i was deciding between the two. My post was here. Capita Retail China has moved up by more than 10% whereas PCRT is still sleeping... urrghhh... This is one example of how one's life is being impacted by such this 'little decisions' we made? hahaha.



QAF



No major news released but i hate to see long tail. The tail becomes a resistance to overcome in the future but the bullish thing is that the counter is at 52 weeks high and there will probably be further upside.

SPH


Again what i like about SPH is that it is trading at 52 week high. Hopefully we can see it making new highs.No major news released.

Starhill


This is under the yield bubble stock and will watch it closely. The company will announce its Q3 results on 29 Oct.

STXOSV


This is my new addition this week. The post is here. This stock is pretty volatile and you must have the appetite for it. The Company will announce its Q3 results on 14 Nov. A major fund managed by Och-ziff has been selling out big time from this counter but the good thing is that the selling has been pretty well absorbed. OZ Funds now hold about 11.92% and i believe they will continue to sell down their shareholding. OZ Master Fund is a hedge fund, something similar to my Ninja Master Fund :-P 

The stock will not move up until they are completely out of the picture, so i think you will have time to buy this company slow although i can't remember why they are selling out of STXOSV. Perhaps some readers can enlighten me.

Suntec REIT


I like what i am seeing :) The Company will release its Q3 results on 25 Oct 2012.

UMS


The Company recently went "X-dividend" and came under selling pressure. I hope the correction in the US tech sector will not affect this counter badly. No major news released.

Happy SRSing and drop me investment ideas if you have any. The key criteria will be:

  • Fundamentally sound.
  • Annualized yield of at least 5%.
  • Long term holding.
  • Preferably with decent valuations.

Thursday, 18 October 2012

Nera Tel - Q3 results

Nera Tel announced its Q3 results. The link is here.

Excellent Q3 results where profit growth is 114%. I love this kind of company and my mistake not to load up more when i first spotted it. it has since increased by 33%. 

Perhaps i should really stop trading and start investing. 


Investors will probably need to wait till Q4 for the dividend announcement.


Another record close today. Will it be a sell on news tomorrow?

Happy SRSing.

Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Goodbye Starhub, Hello M1. Nera and STXOSV

As mentioned in my SRS post yesterday, i was contemplating a rebalancing of my position in Starhub.I tried to sell at 3.66 this morning but only managed to get out at 3.63 in the end as prices moved away from me.

Starhub has served me well. I have bought this counter when it was around $2.08 and it has risen by 86% at its highest but obviously i couldn't catch the top. At current price, the PE is more than 20x with a triple digit Price to book. The yield has also compressed to around 5.4%.(If i remember correctly). I decide to switch out of Starhub and move into M1 to continue having an exposure to the telecom sector. M1 is trading at lower PE of around 14x and with a cheaper P-B ratio as well. 

I was actually contemplating selling 1 lot of Starhub and then buying 1 lot of Singtel and M1 each. hahaha but in the end, i decide to make life simple just by selling Starhub and switching into M1 although the chart of Singtel looked better to me. 

Share price of Starhub - Goodbye


Analysts Recommendation on Starhub


Share price of M1 - Hello



Bought 2 lots at 2.675. Yield will be around 5.4%.

Analysts recommendation on M1



STX OSV

I bought 3 lots at 1.59. Let see how far it can go. Personally i thought this stock is volatile. I bought primarily of its single digit PE and high dividend yield.


Analysts Recommendation - STX OSV



DBS issued a buy report today. The link is here.

Nera Tel


Nera Tel closed at its 52 weeks high today. DMG re initiate a buy into this counter with a 64c target price. The research report is here. My original post is here at 41c and i should have bought more! :)

Happy SRSing.

Tuesday, 16 October 2012

QAF - Projection Target and Starhub

QAF has an interesting run today and is part of my SRS portfolio. While i am not trading this position, let me share how you can do a projection of the target price of around 86c from the breakout point. Sometimes it is quite really tempting to take profit on it and today was that day.... haha :) Endure...


Starhub

I am quite ready to let go of this counter soon. The company has reached a point where it has a rich valuation and the yield is not significantly better from either M1 or Singtel. I may even switch to Singtel or M1 on pure valuation basis. Let me consider for a while more. :)

Saturday, 13 October 2012

SRS Portfolio Weekly Update (where time permits or where important news released).

Lets do a quick recap of the various positions i have in my SRS portfolio. Adhoc weekly update but it forces me a discipline to look at my portfolio. I will present the weekly charts as well as any news that was released during the week. The main reason why i did this post was because SPH released its full year earnings yesterday.

Cache Logistics


Nice run up and the yields has compressed to about 6.1%. I am wary of the yield bubble but will try to ride this as long as i can. No news released this week. My entry price is around 96 and i had it for quite a while now.

Far East Hospitality Trust


A dark red candle after hitting a record 1.08 last week. This is a bearish engulfing candle. So probably will go sideway with downside bias. Guess the euphoria post the research reports and F1 stuff is over. 
No major news released this week. Likely to move towards the 100 support. My initial entry post is here at around 98.5 cents.

Nera Tel


Have run up strongly since my initial entry at 41 cents. My entry post is here. The Company announced that it will release it Q3 earnings after trading hours on 18 Oct 2012. The Company also announced the appointment of Mr. Eric Thorsen as the new director who is representing Eltek ASA. The new board composition as follows:

Don't think there is any alarm bells set off by the resignation of Mr. Jorgen Larsen, as he was the representation from Eltek Asa and he has left the Company. The long term chart continues to look good and my gut feel is that the Company will continue to have a strong showing for Q3.

Perennial CRT


The Company continue to meander sideways. My entry post at 50c is here. No major news released this week. I think this company will take a while before it realise its potential where the projects' TOP become clearer.

QAF


The weekly chart looks impressive and bullish! My entry post of 70.5c is here. During the week, CIMB released a research report.  The Company announced that its Business Director has resigned. 

He is the son of the Chairman and the reason cited was to "pursue other business interest".... hmmm...

SPH


The Company released its full year results this week. There will be a final dividend of 17 cents per share and will pay the dividend on 21 Dec 12, just in time for your Christmas shopping. I have held this stock for a while now and bought around $3.72. It has been moving in tight range as it is a stable business. Including the interim dividend of 7 cents, the full year dividend will be around 24 cents. At my entry price, the yield will be 6.45%. At current price, the implied yield is about 5.9%. Still pretty decent in today's context.

The results presentation slides is here.


Not exactly a fantastic set of results with a 35% drop in investment income but a stable recurring income....zzzz... it is one of those boring stocks but the Company is trying to diversify into property and hopefully the rental income will continue to increase to 'spread' the risk. The EPS is $0.23 and that represents a PER of 17.7x. It is not Ƨheap at all so i am unlikely to add to my 1 lot position.

Starhill Global


I have held this stock for a long time and my entry price was about $0.58. The yields has also compressed to around 5.2% but it is still trading below its NAV. I will continue to watch this stock closely as it falls under the "yield" bubble category. No major news released this week.

Suntec REIT


This is one of my worst performing stock primarily because i bought a fair bit at the top. My entry price was $1.51 and i have held this for a while now. I guess the only comfort was that the dividends received has helped to lower the cost over the year but i was lucky because the price recovered due to the hunt for yield stocks. The unit is trading at around 6.5% and is still trading at a discount to its NAV. Chart wise, it is hitting resistance zone and 1.60-1.65 area will be a tough zone to clear. This stock also illustrate one weakness, why didn't i pick up some during the 110-115 zones? Is it because i didn't dare to do so or is it because i haven't been monitoring my portfolio closely like what i am doing now? Let me ponder this for a while more. haha

UMS


One of my rare Tech purchases. The entry is at 40c and the post is here. It has just gone X-D this week and i will receive an interim 1 cents per share by end of this month. :) Excellent. 

Heartache Hutchinson Port?

I missed out on Hutchinson Port at 90c. I had been contemplating it since my last post here and was sharing it with some of my "ninja gang" to consider it. hahaha. Took too long to make a decision and probably part of it was driven by my bad experience during its IPO where i lost a 5 digit sum. Read that post here. The chart below is the Sing Dollar counter and the stock started to run when a few research houses started to issue buy recommendations on this counter in October. Anyway i am not one who dwell on the past so this posting was just to share my mindset. Prior experiences will affect our decisions making process and this is how we accumulate experience over time...be it good or bad experiences. haha :-P

 

This post took me more than one hour! It is no joke...so i better not add too many counters into my portfolio before it become unmanageable! 

Leave some comments or like my facebook page if you want to ask further questions. Happy Weekend. :)

Tuesday, 9 October 2012

SRS Portfolio at 30 Sep 2012

I received my Sep SRS account statement today.



This month is a pretty "low" month in terms of dividends received. There is only $80 received from my QAF counter. This will probably allow me to buy 2 to 3 "free loaves" of bread per month when i retire but considering that this is an interim dividend, hopefully i should get more bread soon.

This is an active month for the SRS portfolio in terms of purchases.
3 Sep - Bought 5 lots of Far East Hospitality Trust.
11 Sep - Bought 10 lots of UMS Holdings Ltd
26 Sep - Bought 10 lots of Perennial China Retail Trust


In terms of portfolio performance, it has done decently. The unrealised gain is around $7,597.12 (up 15.1%).

Performance since inception

Investment Capital - $82,875 (Including the Sep contribution)

Value of Portfolio + Cash = ($57,660 + $39,044) = $96,704.

Unrealised ROI = 1.16x (ROI will increase to 1.38x if i have exclude the Sep capital contribution).

Current Portfolio Breakdown (based on value)


Happy SRSing. Let's see if the portfolio can cross $100,000 by 31 Dec 12.

Thursday, 4 October 2012

Children's Day Investment Policy?

With effect from this Children's Day - 5 Oct 2012, i am going to make some minor adjustments to my investment criteria for the SRS portfolio.

If you have been following my blog, I have built up a portfolio of dividend policy paying REITs and stocks in the last 2 months but i am still holding on to quite a bit of cash. (About 40% of the portfolio). 

I am pretty cautious of adding new positions as the market seemed to be forming a "Yield Bubble" and in all cases, bubbles are unsustainable. To be honest, i am quite tempted to take profit on my positions in Starhub and Cache as the yields have came down quite a bit following the run-up and the stocks may not be trading at cheap valuation. In any case, let me ponder on them more but i have put price alerts on them at certain price supports. The weekly charts of both counters are presented below from where i bought them.

Starhub


Starhub has served me well from my entry point of around 2.08 and has risen 76%. The current yield has dropped below 6% and the company has taken on more debt. I will still stay with the counter but will not hesitate to get out of this when the time comes. 

Cache


Children's Day Policy

I am going to expand my investment criteria beyond yields and include blue chips and growth stocks into the portfolio even if the yields may not be attractive. The reason for doing so was that i was looking back at some of my trades and i actually bought some growth O&G and blue chip stocks in June and July but never had the patience to let these stocks run its due course. Some of the interesting growth stocks are Ezra, Ezion, Midas, Osim... the list is long but the yields from them may not be attractive. 

By creating a portfolio of growth, blue chips and dividends stocks, it can perhaps stomach the volatility better and at the same time, allow the growth and blue chip stocks to run its full course. I call it the Children's Day Policy to perhaps create this portfolio with my kids investment horizon in mind. One thing i don't want to happen though is to trade the stocks in this Portfolio. This is not a trading portfolio. This is a Invest more Trade less portfolio.

Anyway, i am not saying you can buy the growth or the blue chips now but i am preparing the change in anticipation of any possible corrections that may be coming along the way to make them attractive again  

Happy SRSing.

Perennial China Retail Trust - news update

Since my investment into the above on 21 Sep 2012, PCRT announced on 2 Oct that it is diversifying into Beijing. This project will be invested together with some reputable local businessmen from Singapore but will only be ready in 2016 and PCRT will have the right of first refusal over the retail space.

Personally i think it is a good diversification for its current portfolio. The report by DBS is here.

Happy SRSing

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