Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Capital Preservation Mode

Today i am in a capital preservation mode.

I just counted my lucky stars for getting out of Asian Pay Television Trust safely. Despite my own initial "chopped chilli" rating, i was swayed by the somewhat "improved sentiments" and decide to "punt" the IPO and against all odds, actually managed to get 36 lots from ATM and amazingly i actually got out for a small profit of ~$1,060. 

I am quite glad that my decision to punt the IPO didn't affect the majority of the readers since i made up my mind only about 1hr before the application closes. On hindsight, the risk reward is just not worth the effort and i should not have done this. I should just have told my broker to allocate my 1 lot from placement to someone else. Having said that, if the price has opened below water, i would have cut my losses in any case. Lesson to share - when in doubt just stay away (as kindly pointed out by one facebook reader :P). 

M1


I decided to take profit on M1 at $3.22 today. I have been contemplating it for a while but today just gave me the perfect excuse to do it. The yield has dropped below 4% and the PE is now more than 20x. In any case, it is overvalued. My entry post was here and my only 'regret' was that i should have done it last week when i first thought about it.

Far East Hospitality Trust


Again, my regret was not taking profit earlier. I should have sold when 110 gave way under usual circumstances but as it is (no excuse) i was in big Apple when the support breaks. haha

Ascott REIT


Similarly i divested this counter as i reduce my exposure to the market. REITs have being coming under a reality check, and i reckon i can switch to some interesting counters if market drops further.

Mapletree Greater China Trust


I sold this counter today from my cash portfolio. Some of you have been tracking my position, so i will just share that with you. 

I will share with you what i think of the market in a weekend post. I am rushing for work and catching a flight for a business trip.

Talk to you shortly. :)

Friday, 24 May 2013

REITaility Check

I think the sharp drop in REIT stock prices caused a reality check and some panic selling in the Singapore market. Is this the burst of the yield bubble which i first talked about in October last year? Even Mapletree Greater China Trust was not spared and dropped a significant 7.5% this week. 

The series of upgrades by analysts last week caused me to make a mental note to take profit on this counter if the 1.11 support was breached. 

Unfortunately, i am out of office this week and by the time i had a chance to look at my portfolio yesterday, it was already trading at the support level of 1.04. The triggers on my SI Station (including my other counters) has been sounding non-stop the moment i started up the application. ^_^

 

Anyway, i have set another trigger at 1.02, i will sell my positions in MGCCT is the final line of defense is breached. This time better tell my broker the plan as i am travelling again next week. :(

How you should monitor your portfolio?

All human beings are unique, so don't expect me to tell you what you should do with your money or investments. I typically won't answer those questions because i have no answers. I have shared with you previously that you should know your own time frame and your should know yourself before you venture into trading and investing. Its okay to pay school fees and learn from your mistakes. I have paid countless school fees but just make sure it doesn't wipe you out and don't take leveraged position if you don't know how to cut loss.

How i monitor my trading portfolio

For my trading portfolio, i am pretty nimble. I trade in bigger positions and have a tighter cut loss. My objective is trading income and it is more 'technical' in nature. Currently i have no trading positions because i have taken profits on them when they hit my targets. If they have not hit my targets, i would have cut loss on them anyway. I will trade only if i have time to look at the market.

How i monitor my investing portfolio

My investing amount is smaller, my time frame is longer and my objective is passive income. You know what i have in my SRS portfolio. However, having said that, i do have a "cut loss" or "take profit" level as well. I had wanted to take profit on M1 when the yield compressed to below 4% but i haven't got the time to sit down and give it a serious thought. I usually get out when valuations get out of sync with the market but it is more 'fundamental' in nature. I do have a stop loss level as well because it is to protect my capital. Currently my SRS portfolio is up about 16%, i will probably get out to protect my capital if there is a big market crash and then slowly build up my portfolio again during the crisis as there are more bargains to be found.



Food for thought: If you are losing sleep over your stock market portfolio, either your position is too big (relative to your entire personal wealth) or you don't know what you are doing (and is therefore afraid of the unknown).  

Fed Reserve and you

One word from Bernake and the market came crashing down?



I have to tell you that the low interest rate environment will not last forever. There will be a point in time Fed has to raise the interest rate and when they do so, the prices of REITs and bonds will fall. At which the prices of real estate will probably need to take a correction as well. My "crystal ball" says it will probably be around 2015 (plus and minus) that interest rate has to go up. Take it with a pinch of salt but we can check back this page again in 2015.
 

Tuesday, 14 May 2013

Croesus Retail Trust

Today i added 5 lots of Croesus Retail Trust to my SRS portfolio.

I am seeking yield for this portfolio and the projected yield of 6.8% is "good enough" for me given that i have been allocated 4 lots from the placement tranche at 93c. 

I have done a fair bit of write up here, so will not repeat them.


It's still early days for this counter.

Happy SRSing. ^_^

Saturday, 11 May 2013

SRS portfolio as of 30 Apr 2013


The unrealised value of the Starfish SRS portfolio continue to go up in tandem with the market from March.

The key contributors are M1, Overseas Education and Starhill REIT.

There is only addition in April where I added 6 lots of China Merchants Pacific. The post is here.

I also received $160 worth of dividend from M1 Limited and a pathetic interest of $1.54. I have shared with you previously why we are losing money keeping cash previously.

Happy SRSing and have a good weekend.

Wednesday, 8 May 2013

Far East Hospitality Trust ("FEHT") & Perennial China Retail Trust ("PRCT")

Let's take a quick look at 2 companies in my Starfish SRS portfolio. Both FEHT and PRCT announced Q1 results in the last 2 days.

FEHT

FEHT announced Q1 results that were "above expectation" in terms of DPU but not in terms of revenue and net property income. With  a DPU of about 1.38 cents per unit, my SRS portfolio of 
5,000 units will receive a quarterly distribution of $69 on 14 June. The presentation slides are here.

The tourism sector in Singapore is experiencing some "bumps" due to high SGD rates vis-a-vis other currencies and that has created some "downward" pressure. 

Having said that, Q1 is traditionally the slowest period of the year and we can expect better quarters ahead for FEHT.


Chart wise, the counter appears to be consolidating sideways.

PRCT

PRCT also announced its Q1 results where things appear to be ramping up nicely. The presentation slides are here and you can see some nice pictures of the properties under development. PRCT announced a Q1 DPU of 0.95 Singapore cents mainly from the earned out arrangement. That will translate into $95 for my 10,000 shares (payment date not announced). The NAV per share of the Group is around $0.71 as of 31 March 2013. In this regard, the current price of PRCT is still trading below book value and i expect the gap to narrow as the development pans out. The gearing is at a comfortable 23%.


Shengyang Assets


I will expect the occupancy rates to gradually improve as the properties get completed and developed.


In any case, things appears to be looking up in the coming quarters. We shall see if PRCT is able to deliver.


Chart wise, the share price appears to be "looking up" as well and will probably resume its upward trend if the properties are able to launch as planned. A break above 66 cents will be extremely bullish.

My Apple is "alive"

I am most pleased with my purchase of Apple on as the stock has appreciated by 15% since.  The entry post is here.

However, this is not what i wanted to tell you. I didn't realize that the Apple chart in that post was a "live" one as i have "cut and paste" from the yahoo website.

As such, the chart in that post is constantly being updated with the latest price movement. 

The latest Apple chart is below. Hope it can cross above $500 again and head towards the $600 mark.

Chart forApple Inc. (AAPL)
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